A decade following the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that divided the country and triggered chaos, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and voters drifted into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two prominent writers from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and seismic referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the political architecture of our region remains very unstable."
Book Publication Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have analysed the governmental, financial and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the topic with a tour of lectures that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts all parties, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose results have remained undefined because then you land with an extraordinarily divided society where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the people who have won lack clarity exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say this point is approaching, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and unionists minimise the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there might be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has obscured the absence of serious debate, stated McBride.
"Many are for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has taken place in academia but hardly any government figures or campaigners seek to involve themselves with the essentials. As an example, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, neither author advocates unity or the current situation. Both writes two essays that strive for neutrality in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling economic and societal statistics, past examples and constitutional models.
Arguments range over identity markers, taxes, healthcare systems, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The goal is to educate and stimulate conversation.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there hasn't quite been a debate," said O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an acknowledgement of the notion that there could be valid points on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate claim they favour unity but reject paying higher taxes or introducing a new flag to reflect unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin must work out what the proposal from Irish nationalism is other than just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist thinks a national vote in his generation is possible and that it may take place suddenly. "There might be just a mad or a bad or a incompetent official who says: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have plausible, valid arguments, he said. "One side will prevail here and the other side will in the end not succeed but both parties has possesses something to learn from the other's positions."
Request for Wider Debate
Westminster needed to participate in the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This is about your state. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish question."
