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Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has announced that a framework for a ceasefire agreement negotiated with American diplomats are poised to be completed in a matter of days. Following this, U.S. representatives will submit the documentation to the Russian leadership.

Berlin Talks Yield Major Headway, With Critical Obstacles Remain

After two days of discussions in Berlin, American negotiators indicated on Monday that approximately “90%” of the contentious issues between Moscow and Kyiv had been resolved. Although the outlook appears positive, the path to ending the war is not guaranteed, particularly because Russia's lack of participation from the current dialogue.

In the early hours of Tuesday, Zelenskyy noted that the American legislature is expected to consider defense assurances and that a complete package of documents might be ready “today or tomorrow.” He added that, the U.S. would hold consultations with Moscow, leading to summit-level talks possibly this coming weekend.

Defense Assurances and International Support

“We are counting on five key agreements. Several concern security guarantees: formally ratified, that is, approved and endorsed by the US Congress,” the president remarked to journalists. He clarified that these guarantees would “reflect article 5” of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.

On Monday, American representatives declined to give precise information regarding the probable makeup of the security package or what would happen if Moscow sought to capture additional territory after a peace deal. They did, however, confirm that the United States does not intend to deploy troops on the ground in the country.

Heads of state from the UK, France, Germany and several additional European nations said in a unified declaration that troops from a “coalition of the willing” could “help with the rebuilding of Ukrainian military capabilities, in protecting Ukraine’s skies, and in ensuring safer seas, including through operating inside Ukraine.”

They stopped short, however, of proposing these measures would serve as assurances matching NATO's Article 5. Furthermore, there is scant indication that Moscow is anywhere close to accepting the kind of arrangement under discussion between the U.S. and Ukraine.

Moscow's Stance and Territorial Dispute

The following day, the Kremlin stated it had not seen the specifics of the proposals on security guarantees. Russia’s deputy foreign minister, Sergey Ryabkov, declared that the country would never accept troops from Nato countries being stationed in Ukrainian territory “under any circumstances.”

The main sticking point between the Ukrainian team and their American counterparts remains the territorial question. A key demand centers on Kyiv ceding the areas of the Donbas it currently controls, while the Ukrainian side wants to freeze the lines. “We are discussing the territorial issue. You know, it is one of the key issues. Currently, there is no consensus on it yet,” the president said following the Berlin discussions.

American mediators, headed by two senior advisors, has suggested a compromise solution. Under this plan would see Ukrainian forces withdraw, but Russia would not move forward, with the demilitarised area becoming “a free economic zone.” Moscow has indicated it could use police and national guard units rather than the army in such an area, implying it would still seek to maintain authority there.

“I want to stress once again: a ‘special economic zone’ is not controlled by Moscow. Not legally or in practice will we recognise Donbas – its currently occupied areas – as belonging to Russia. Absolutely,” stated Zelenskyy.

Path Forward and Potential Outcomes

It is not clear how the two sides will resolve the territorial issue. The Ukrainian leader has previously suggested that a compromise solution such as a special economic area could be conceivable if the citizens of Ukraine approved it in a national vote. The major impediment is expected to arise when the plans are put to President Vladimir Putin of Russia, who has shown no indication he is willing to compromise on his war aims.

“Should Russia refuse all proposals, we will end up with exactly what we are experiencing on our flight right now – turbulence,” said Zelenskyy, making the statement as his aircraft departed from Berlin.

“I am confident the United States will apply sanctions pressure and provide us with additional armaments if they reject the deal. I think, that would be a fair request from Ukraine to the United States,” he concluded.