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Ordinarily, the National Football League's Head Coach of the Year award adheres to a straightforward pattern. It often functions as a type of mea culpa. Our apologies we misjudged your franchise in our preseason predictions.

Theoretically, it's a clear-cut trajectory: the skipper who orchestrated the biggest turnaround is handed the prize. In practice, it creates an yearly argument about expectations and whether we're actually rewarding excellent coaching or simply the most shocking upset.

But this year's race is distinctly different. The pool of candidates is remarkably deep. It has been the season of resurgences. The NFL has been chaotic, with reigning conference winners falling away and longtime underperformers rising together. In an normal year, Sean Payton leading the Denver Broncos to the summit of the AFC would make him the clear favorite. But in this turbulent and fun season, he's facing several other exceptional candidates.

Here is how the projected vote should look.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, Their Record

Coach of the Year voters are fascinated by signal-callers. This is a tradition. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. If you solve a quarterback, you're well on your way to winning the award.

The Bears' head coach didn't merely corrected Caleb Williams; he's freed him. Given a proper environment, the QB has been afforded the chance to showcase his rare ability. From Week 9, the Bears rank fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a hot streak – it's sustained performance. Under his guidance, the quarterback has become increasingly confident, far less reckless, and has eagerly submitted to the gameplan rather than going rogue. It is an attack constructed entirely in Johnson's vision: a physical run game, a consistent helping of play-action and a imaginative aerial game that springs wide-open targets everywhere. Williams has capitalized. And when clear throws haven't been there, he's been capable to conjure big plays from nothing.

The coach arrived to the Bears with a defined offensive vision. Virtually each bet – rebuilding the offensive line, featuring the pass-catchers, transforming the QB into a timing-based thrower – has worked. That's rare for a first-year head coach. And it's even more uncommon still for a coach who entered the building with the kind of expectations he did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the most sought-after name on the head coaching carousel. But when it comes to selecting a leader, there are zero guarantees. Remarkably, he has met expectations – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not just to be a scheme dork but the kind of leader that can breathe fresh energy into an franchise.

During a typical year, Johnson would be the clear-cut favorite. But the current isn't a normal year!

The area where Johnson's case comes a bit into trouble is on the defensive side. The Bears currently sit in the bottom third in defensive success rate. They are surviving on turnovers, and turnovers are notoriously unreliable. Defensive minds can stress ball disruption, but no one can guarantee it. He is on the ballot because the offense is sustainable. He's ranked lower because variance is doing an outsized share of the defensive heavy lifting. With a few bounces of the ball, the Bears would be several wins behind. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the foundation is in place for sustained success. However he comes up just short here.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a similar position to his counterpart. He's another rookie leader who has orchestrated a swift resurgence. During the crucial final weeks of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the finest all-around ball of his professional life. And he's also overseen the remaking of a defensive unit that now sits at fifth in the NFL in EPA per play.

What's more impressively, he has mastered the off-field aspects, which was not a guarantee after his early press conference introduction and some of his preseason moves.

The coach walked into Jacksonville with an exceptionally raw coaching staff. Unlike Johnson, who packed themselves with the ideal staff blend of new ideas and experience, he hired first-timers. From the head coach himself to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with first-timers. That kind of approach is intriguing on paper, but often collapses in practice – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everybody is figuring out a their job in real-time. Yet Coen has managed to bring the entire group and all elements together.

After an initial hot start, there was a chance that the campaign would veer off the rails. A mid-year collapse caused the Jags wobbling once more. That's usually when coaches overcorrect. Coen did not. Rather, he streamlined things. The offense stopped chasing explosive plays and started seeking consistent ones. The coach recentered the attack around key players and the running game, and asked his QB to use his legs more.

The results are evident. The Jags have won multiple games consecutively and will be the conference's number three playoff seed. He receives the slightest deduction in the standings because he took over a skilled team, but he has proven he can maximize that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks, 13-3

Every Strong of the Year argument has a pivotal decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback decision.

Moving on from a incumbent, signing a new quarterback and partnering him with an new play-caller might have ended the season in the early weeks. Instead, it defined it. Through the middle point of the year, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player contender. He has cooled off since that time, slipping to 23rd in EPA per dropback over the second half of the schedule, placing him only a single place ahead of peers.

Still