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New Yorkers will learn who will be their new city leader this Tuesday, in a race that will decide who runs and protects the country's largest city at a time when the former president has threatened to deploy armed forces to the city.

Against that backdrop, New York has witnessed a race for mayor that has matched two distinctly opposing Democrats against each other. The election has become an acrimonious showdown, laced with alleged racial bias and Islamophobia, but it is the political differences between the two leading contenders that could have major implications for how the party fares in next year's midterm elections.

The Rising Progressive

On the left side is the democratic socialist, the young democratic socialist whose rapid ascent and grassroots campaign has attracted international attention. Representing the old guard is the former governor, the ex- New York governor now running as an independent – and benefiting from the support of ultra-rich donors and corporations.

With days to go, it is the progressive, the one-time underdog who defeated Cuomo in the Democratic primary who is firmly installed as the leading candidate. Mamdani, who has campaigned on a platform of affordability and promised to freeze rent for about 2 million city residents, has outpaced his rival by significant margins in every poll taken in the fall, and it is very much the younger man's election to throw away.

A Bitter Contest

Yet, the former governor, who stepped down as governor in recent years amid allegations of sexual harassment, has made it clear he will battle to the finish, and not necessarily in an above-the-belt fashion. He has criticized his opponent's goals as unrealistic, and in recent days chuckled along as a broadcaster made Islamophobic remarks about the candidate, who is a Muslim. Two weeks ago, Cuomo was strongly criticized as bigoted after posting an AI-generated ad that included a series of racial caricatures and showed his opponent releasing a convicts.

This represents a particularly ugly conclusion to an election that could be critical to the direction that the party, floundering in its reaction to the former president's authoritarian grabs, takes in the coming years.

National Implications

If the progressive wins convincingly, the establishment party leaders who have refused to endorse his bid will be compelled to address a platform that has appealed to voters' anger at economic disparity, inflation and the establishment. It would be hard for the Senate leader and Hakeem Jeffries not to adopt at least a portion of the candidate's ambitious ideas about economic justice, given the fresh face has generated an excitement within the party perhaps not witnessed since Bernie Sanders campaigned for the White House in 2016.

Conversely, if the former governor, who had been predicted to sail to victory in the Democratic primary, achieve a remarkable comeback victory, it could reinforce the party's current model of considered, lackluster opposition – a strategy that has infuriated grassroots members. A New York rejection of Mamdani's progressive, positive message could convince party leaders that the best plan is to stick to the center – even as surveys show the present version of the Democratic party is deeply unpopular nationwide.

Voter Enthusiasm

Residents of New York appear to favor the progressive agenda. Surveys show that Mamdani supporters are much more excited about their candidate than Cuomo backers, something that has been apparent throughout the campaign. The candidate's snappy videos on social media, his hopeful outlook for New York and his willingness to actually venture out and connect with voters in the city has drawn an force of over fifty thousand volunteers, many of them youth or new participants.

Personal Attacks

Yet, the former governor, in his late sixties, continues to fight. And with the stakes against him, the former governor has turned to negative campaigning in recent weeks.

After spending months launching various attacks at his opponent to see what might stick, Cuomo has narrowed his focus on targeting Mamdani personally. He has called Mamdani, who was born in Uganda to South Asian heritage, an "radical", and appeared on conservative media for an interview with a rightwing host, where Cuomo claimed New York “will not survive” his opponent as city leader. It reached a nadir recently, when Cuomo chuckled and said “that’s another problem” after a radio host said Mamdani would “cheer” another 9/11-style incident.

Political Landscape

This strategy echoes much of what the former president, who has sent the military reserves to the capital and warned to do the same to NYC, has said about the progressive, and maybe that shouldn’t come as a surprise. A group of billionaire New Yorkers, including some who donated to the Republican in the 2024 election, have invested heavily into trying to get the independent elected, as other influential figures have urged Curtis Sliwa to withdraw from the race.

Political Histories

For the Cuomo camp, and his wealthy backers, are worried, it should not have reached to this. When the assemblyman, one of 150 state legislators, launched his campaign for mayor in last year, few had known him, and in truth, barely anyone even noticed.

The former governor, by comparison, eased his way into the race in this year and became the immediate frontrunner. He was the political heavyweight who seemingly held every edge. The classic establishment figure, he had married a Kennedy and worked in Bill Clinton’s administration. He became New York governor in 2011, seventeen years after his parent, Mario Cuomo, left office from the same position.

The progressive, who was voted in to the state legislature in recently, does not have the same political heritage. But his dedication to providing no-cost transit and free childcare – along with the freeze-the-rent pledge – offer a brighter outlook of the future than Cuomo’s dire warnings about “mayhem” and rising criminal activity, and his promise to increase police presence.

Recent Challenges

Nevertheless, Mamdani has faced some challenges in recent days, after footage surfaced appearing to show him suggesting the New York police department and the IDF were intertwined.

“We have to make clear that when the boot of the NYPD is on your throat, it’s been influenced by the Israeli military,” Mamdani said in the clip, filmed at a Democratic Socialists of America convention in recent years. Mamdani, a vocal opponent of Israel who has said the nation is engaging in atrocities in Gaza, suggested he was questioning cooperative programs between the NYPD and IDF.

Emotional Response

With the election nearing, Mamdani appears to have won empathy and backing, however, for his reaction to Cuomo’s increasing rhetoric.

The progressive addressed the independent's terrorism comments in an heartfelt recording. In it, the candidate recalled how, when he first campaigned for the legislature, a family member advised to him that he did not have to tell people about his religion. It was a realization, he said, that many local Muslims had been told “again and again”: “That security could only be found in the margins of our community. That it is in those shadows alone where Muslims could embrace their full identities, and that if we were to step out from those shadows, then it is in those silence that we must set aside our faith.”

Speaking to the behavior of his opponents, who has claimed Mamd